Research
Original analysis and data-driven findings.
AllEquitiesCryptoMacroPredictions
Equities2026-07-15· 8 min
S&P 500 Breadth Divergence Analysis
Market breadth has narrowed significantly — top 10 stocks account for 38% of index weight. Historical parallels suggest elevated risk of mean-reversion.
Crypto2026-07-12· 12 min
Bitcoin On-Chain: Holder Cohort Behavior
Long-term holder supply ratio hit 14-month high. Analyzing what previous similar readings preceded in terms of price action.
Macro2026-07-08· 15 min
Yield Curve Normalization: What History Says
After 18 months inverted, the 2s10s has normalized. Examining the lag between normalization and recession onset across 6 cycles.
Predictions2026-07-01· 10 min
Prediction Market Calibration: Are Markets Efficient?
Backtesting 2,400 resolved Polymarket contracts. Markets are well-calibrated at the extremes but show systematic overconfidence in the 30-70% range.
Equities2026-06-25· 20 min
Sector Rotation Signals: A Quantitative Framework
Building a momentum + macro composite signal for sector allocation. Backtest results from 2005-2026.